Friday, July 17, 2009

Randomized Controlled Trials in the Social Sciences

There's a debate going on about Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) in Economics.  Kicked off by Bill Easterly (in response to recent 'academic' debates in journals about the same topic between Angus Deaton and others).  Take a look at Bill Easterly's blog post, and his (requested) comments by Chris Blattman. 

Three points are relevant in my view:
1) RCTs need to be replicated, and such replications must be published.  This requires that economists and social scientists generally address the institutional inertia about publishing replications.  Top level journals need to start publishing 'replication' issues, or have a 'replications' section devoted entirely to verification of previous empirical results. This might be a pipe dream, but I think it is necessary for us to maintain the 'science' in social science. Esther Duflo (pictured above) favours something like this. 
2) RCTs are not widely generalizable.  They are often local, they are tailored to specific conditions, and the results that economists obtain might be culturally contingent.  Hence, an RCT in one area might work because it does not contravene a group's or culture's moral sentiments, whereas in another area a group might have different values and respond differently to the same incentives.  Obviously the Haifa Daycare centre is the most famous example of this, but there are many others
3) People who talk about the 'ethics' of allocating an RCT seem to miss the boat.  I am with Blattman entirely on this one: if people can see that allocation of a 'treatment' is transparent and uncorruptible then they will believe that it is ethical.  Drawing numbers/names out of hats, or some equivalent public and transparent randomizing mechanism covers this.  But the ethics of dealing within RCTs is crucial, i.e., understanding that they are subjects of a social science experiment, but that does not mean you can treat them as chess pieces, they are people and we require their informed consent (John List has controversial views on this topic).  Hopefully, sensitive social scientists who engage in such work will adhere to such a dictum.

Hopefully my two cents can help to propagate an informed view of RCTs to those who read this blog.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Ha-Joon Chang - Bad Samaritans

http://www.uskoreainstitute.org/bin/p/k/bad%20samaritan%20cover.jpgHa-Joon Chang - Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism [Unabridge Audiobook]
Customarily I write short reviews.  I felt, however, that given the extent of my simultaneous agreement and disagreement with the content in Chang's book, it would be worthwhile to write a lengthier piece discussing these competing sentiments.  http://blog.syracuse.com/family/2007/11/infant.jpg

First, I appreciate the history that Chang discusses when he assesses the paths that the UK and the US took toward their economic success. Contrary to popular belief, the UK and the US taxed imports widely (tariffs), subsidised specific industries, and undertook various policies of 'infant industry' style protection. The tale goes back in the UK to debates between Ricardo and Malthus on whether one should protect one's industry to promote its future capabilities, or whether one should expose it to free trade to ensure that it becomes efficient (Malthus argued in favour of tariffs because he felt that the poor would be adversely affected by complete liberalization, particularly that revoking the corn laws would hurt the British poor). So yes, good history. However, when discussing state-led interventions, he fails to recognise one of the great problems of such intervention - how does the state access information about which industries will succeed and which will fail? In a capitalist economy, individuals and firms fail at what they do all the time, when the state is heavily involved in several industries and a sufficient number of them don't 'hit the spot' the state fails. South Korea was remarkably lucky because the areas in which it invested are the areas in which world demand grew. It was also 'lucky' enough to have such autocratic control so as to force people not to consume imports, to work 54 hours a week, and more.

Second, the flaw of ignoring investment specificity links to the flaw of selection, and Chang seems to have ignored research on problems of investment specificity. The argument progresses as follows. If I do not know which of several potential investments will work (and I cannot monitor workers properly), there is a disincentive for me to invest in certain specific projects, or specific kinds of capital. My 'general' capital may allow me to spread risk, but have lower profit, whereas specific capital will be more risky, but might reap higher profits.  The problem is again one of information, one which the capitalist system (approximately) solves by allowing people to invest and succeed, or to invest and fail. Now, it is feasible for government to do this as long as it is willing to fail in at least as many circumstance, if not more, as it wants to succeed. But, once you have invested (in a State-Owned Enterprise) and people are employed, allowing a project to fail is a very difficult political beast to overcome, one that often requires autocratic power. 

http://www.unwiredview.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/nokia-5310-xpressmusic-official.jpgBut this problem of 'failing' doesn't allow for the systems that would have failed had you, as government, not bailed them out.  Toyota was bailed out a few times by the Japanese government. Samsung was assisted by the Korean government. Nokia was protected by the Swedish government. They would have failed had they been exposed to market forces, but now they are amongst the leading companies of the world. How do you differentiate between those that will eventually succeed, but require assistance now, and those that will fail regardless. We have more data on those that have been successful than on those that have failed - a problem of sample selection bias in the final data with which we are dealing.  What about the failures? Where's this data?

Third, Chang makes a further error. He repeatedly discusses contemporaneous or sequential events and speaks of them as if one caused the other, when, instead, we probably have evidence of high correlation. Though evidence of some event causing another event - adherence to neoliberalism causing problems in the developing world - we cannot also dismiss the possibility of some underlying cause resulting in both of these outcomes. He does, however, admit this problem, but asserts that the burden of proof falls on free trade economists to prove their case when most of the developed world got to where it is now, with historically hefty tariffs and non-tariff barriers. To Chang, the analogy is as follows, 'If developed countries did not get to where they are with free trade, why should the developing world'. Crucially, I believe, advocates of neoliberal policies make exactly the same fallacious correlation-causation claims, so they're often no better than Chang. They also often fail to admit the history (which I have seen both Becker and Friedman do in discussions, they ignore the evidence and go on to comment about the contemporaneous small size of government in areas other than tariffs). Advocates of the free market laud Chile as their golden boy, advocates of statism and intervention exalt South Korea as theirs (though free market also try to claim SK every so often, I'm not sure how). But doing this misses the array of failures in between these extreme successes, the failures that get blamed on 'the other side' (whoever they might turn out to be).

Chang also displays a strange interpretation of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. First, he argues that Smith was a free market ideologue. This is false. Adam Smith argued in favour of market operations supported by government. The notion of laissez-faire was manufactured by the physiocrats, French 'economists' in contemporary parlance, but more than that they were thinkers on moral philosophy and political economy. Second, Chang argues that Smith promoted English interests against those of other countries when he favoured markets, an oddly mercantilist urge. But then Chang goes on to argue that England only reached its zenith in manufacturing industries during the 19th century some time after the Wealth of Nations was published, and after which the government followed some of Smith's advice many years after Smith's death. Notwithstanding whether Smith was being patriotic or not, these facts don't reconcile well.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_1HM_-KHZ5K4/R038uHpn90I/AAAAAAAABd4/-kZYwkxA1Ak/s400/thomas-jefferson-picture.jpgFurther, I did not understand Chang's occasional ad hominem attacks. Most decent readers of history know that Thomas Jefferson did not free his slaves. But they know, further, that he could not free them. Why? He was deeply, horribly, horrifically in debt. Slaves were capital, they had monetary value. He could not freely dispose of them because of his indebtedness. Jefferson could live and campaign for their emancipation. It does not serve a book on economics to attack Jefferson for owning slaves, when you are trying to engage his thoughts on America as a market economy, or his position on free trade. Though we may recognise that Jefferson was a racist who wanted Africans extradited from the Americas, Jefferson's position is irrelevant to a book on modern trade practices and the world economy.

Chang does, however, offer a high quality critique of the Hecksher-Ohlin(-Samuelson) model. One of the major problems with this theory of trade is that they assume 'perfect mobility of factors of production'. Factors of produdtion are labour and capital, the 'inputs' of the production process. However, they are often not approximately mobile, let alone perfectly mobile. Historically, many believed that labour was mobile, but capital was not. With theory from sociology and anthropology, however, we have seen that labour too, is not as mobile as people thought it was. Moreover, governments intervene to ensure that people cannot move between countries, which also precludes labour mobility. One of the great ironies of the United States free market ideology is that its ideologues amongst US Conservatives promote the free movement of capital, but heaven forbid the movement of Mexicans or other foreigners (as labour) into their market.

http://www.sfu.ca/cstudies/mpprog/images/IntellectualMonopolyBook.jpgChang argues lucidly on the topics of both intellectual property rights and 'corruption'. Intellectual property rights have received a lot of attention lately, a recent book by Boldrin and Levine tables the evidence Against Intellectual Monopoly. Chang promotes a similar cause, saying that historically most of the Bad Samaritans did not themselves apply others intellectual property rights and that they developed well as a consequence. He draws on Newton's 'Should of Giants' metaphor, and insists that patent and copyright law, as they stand, are barriers to innovation, to technology diffusion, and thus to development.

Segueing from intellectual property to corruption, he asserts that corrupt governments are not the boogeyman, but rather that certain kinds of corruption are bad, and that certain kinds of corruption can facilitate development (as they did in the cases of the US, the UK, many Europeoan countries, and even Indonesia). He argues further that the resources that developing countries are forced to dedicate to the eradication of corruption and graft would be better suited being invested, and, eventually, once the country becomes better off corruption will probably tend to ebb. Recent work on this (Dutt and Traca, 2009 also see Bardhan, 2006), suggests that, in corrupt countries (and especially in corrupt developing countries with high tariffs), corruption may lubricate the system and allow trade to occur more readily. 

Chang also emphasises strange trends in Power, Politics and Economics. We may believe in the moral value of democracy, but this does not imply that democracy is the best thing for growth. The evidence does not suggest that democracy favours growth more than autocracy does. We should therefore understand that we see democracy as morally superior, but we cannot argue that it is superior because it promotes growth. When looking at the rhetoric of democracy we need to understand this. If evidence was found that democracy was not as good for growth as autocracy, what kind of costs are we willing to bear to ensure a country is democratic but does not grow as well as an autocracy? One thing in the democrat's favour is that countries that develop tend to become more democratic once they reach a specific stage of development, but often that stage is historically contingent and country-specific. 

http://www.bible-history.com/archaeology/rome/julius-caesar-general-dictator-bust.jpgChang concludes the book with a discussion of recent trends in economics to discuss culture as a correlate of economic development and inequality, providing entertaining descriptions of the British by the Romans during the Roman Empire, and also offering descriptions by Westerners of the Japanese, Koreans, and other Asians.  I understand his quibbles with using culture as a fixed, exogenous characteristic of an economy, but we should understand in economics that culture, in its various and dynamic realisations, greatly affects how economies respond to stimuli, how each person in a society feels about a policy, how they react, how they engage with it - much of which can be culturally contingent.  I repeat, this is not to say that culture is inanimate, frozen, or unchanging, but that it invigorates their moral sentiments, that it affects how people respond to incentives, to constraints, and thus to policy.  I believe that Chang needed to give such nuanced analysis more credence.

The book stimulated me to think about Chang's arguments and to take steps to understand why I agree with his position on certain aspects of policy, disagree with others, and remain uncertain about the remainder.  Chang writes polemically, he is evidently committed to a certain position in Economics and his predictions ring true in the current crisis, particularly his insight that the developed world prescribes neoliberal policy to the developing world during its crises, but promotes Keynesian policies for itself during its crises.  Nothing could be more accurate about the current economic crisis.  We must recognise, though, that there has been a sea change in US politics and economics, and we will continue to feel these changes reverberate around and through us for some time.  I would recommend reading the book both because of its flaws, which help the reader to clarify thoughts on related issues, and because of its strengths which allow us to understand better contemporary economic policy and its surrounding debates. 


La Repubblica gets happiness economics wrong

http://quakeragitator.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/happiness_by_wint3r88.jpgIn a recent (Italian) article, 'I nuovi paradisi non conoscono il Pil' (The new paradises don't know GDP), the reporter for La Repubblica is evidently confused about the evidence from happiness economics, or the economics of subjective well-being (SWB).  She writes, "La ricchezza non può comprare la felicità," which translates as "Wealth cannot buy happiness." This is patently false.  All the evidence coming from representative data (that I know of) indicates that there is a strong positive correlation between higher levels of income and levels of subjective well-being.  Hence, wealth can buy happiness.  Moreover, this is supported in the Happy Planet Index report, "Life satisfaction [...] correlates with the size and strength of [...] income and employment." (HPI, 2009, 11)

For certain countries, however, there seem to be factors that correlate with higher levels of income and which also correlate (independently of income) with decreases in subjective well-being.  Hence, money buys happiness, but other things make you unhappy, so unhappy that they overcome the benefits of more money.  What are these things? Decreased trust levels, increased crime levels, decreased social participation, aspirations and adaptation, and many more.
http://www.freeclipartnow.com/d/8538-2/happy-planet.jpg
The 'Happy Planet Index' ranks countries by their level of reported happiness.  What does such a ranking mean? Nothing. We do not know what cultural factors play into reporting specific levels of subjective well-being. What if Brits think it's impolite to talk about 'happiness' or 'satisfaction'? What if Germans feel that they cannot legitimately call themselves 'more satisfied than average'? What if [insert potential cultural confound here]?

What we can talk about though are trends in specific countries over time, and then compare these trends across countries.  The author of the article does both of these, she talks about how happiness was higher in the US, India and China 20 years ago, but then she goes on to discuss the rankings of particular countries and how the Latin American countries in particular rank highly.  Cultural differences? Don't mention those, they might damage the conclusion that 'development makes you unhappy'.

Some caveats: the construction of the index results from life expectancy, ecological footprint (required hectares per person), and subjective well-being.  The problem, however, is that SWB cannot and should not be included in such an index because you cannot do legitimate inter-country comparisons with SWB levels, but only changes over time. I cannot reiterate this enough and I see this error perpetrated regularly. You  cannot do inter-country comparisons of happiness levels!  Also, the flaws in the article represent flaws in the Happy Planet Index and its report. The irony is that I favour new indexes to offer as alternatives to GDP, but these indexes cannot include happiness levels for inter-country comparisons because doing so excludes too many potentially confounding factors.  Should we include, and try to explain, trends in happiness or SWB? Certainly. But it doesn't help to do so in ways that abdicate our responsibility to adequately  understand the problems of such studies.

Please excuse some of the generalizations made above about the potential proclivities of specific cultures, they were meant as illustrations and not as theories of culture. HT: My friend Marco who sent me the article from La Repubblica, I only read it occasionally otherwise.

Blogroll Update

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Casnocha on Cowen

http://www.lfb.org/images/create.jpg I enjoyed Ben Casnocha's appraisal, titled RSSted Devlopment, of Tyler Cowen's recently released book Create Your Own Economy.  I'll read the book once it comes out in paperback and I'll certainly provide a review then (1 day to go till paperback release in the UK... hmm... ok I'll probably pick it up as London-Qatar-Cape Town reading material at the end of the month).  Until then, take a look at Casnocha's review - he ties together several strands of thinking in the blogosphere and combines them with what he read in the book to produce a compelling essay.  And, contrary to Nick Carr, I didn't find it difficult to concentrate on the essay, nor did I skip around too much (I admit to googling Carr's essay, which I read last year, and to loading up Casnocha's website while reading the piece).  Anyway, take a look, I'm looking forward to reading it, strange theories of autistic information processing. 


Friday, July 03, 2009

SA - What to do with Evolution

An article from The Guardian, 'God or Darwin? The world in evolution beliefs',   discusses the representation of and belief in evolution across 10 000 people survey in 10 countries.  I don't know about the design, but, assuming it's vaguely representative, SA performs poorly.  27% of surveyed South Africans have heard of Darwin, 8% agree that scientific evidence for evolution exists, 12% think evolution should NOT be taught, only other theories. 
http://nodebox.net/code/data/media/evolution-gcd.jpg
SA has a problem with education, so I can understand the lack of knowledge about Darwin (I still think it's crazy). Let's assume, then, that those who have an opinion on teaching evolution or believing there is scientific evidence know about Darwin.  So we're dealing with that 27% percent of the sample interviewed.  This means that 8/27 (about 30% of those who know about Darwin) believe there is a scientific basis for evolution, and, similarly, of those who know of Darwin and evolution, 12/27 (about 45% of those who know about Darwin) believe that it should not be taught in schools.  I want to know what those other 7/27 believe.  Do they think there isn't a scientific, but that it should still be taught? That would seem to be an odd opinion.  They could be indifferent. I hope they aren't.

Anyway, whoever chose the article's headline chose awfully. It's got nothing to do with God 'or' Darwin, but whether Darwin should or shouldn't be taught in school and whether those sampled believe that scientific evidence for evolution exists.   Comparing SA to countries like Russia (93% heard of Darwin) and Mexico (91% heard of Darwin) makes me sad. 

US under Sharia Law?

Thomas Sowell has historically been worthy of respect for several reasons.  I have found his economic analysis trenchant, though I find I often disagree with some of his conclusions (often because I think his assumptions are just a touch too libertarian).  I think his insight into economic history is worthwhile. His recent article in National Review, 'Why Republican Infighting Matters', has some great points about the flaw in the Republican party (many Americans list themselves as Conservatives, yet the Republican party, traditionally 'Conservative' is at an all-time low in power).  But, he then goes on to make the crazy claim that a nuclear-empowered Iran implies the following about the current US government: 
Perhaps people who are busy gushing over the Obama cult today might do well to stop and think about what it would mean for their granddaughters to live under sharia law.http://stopsocialism.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/nuclear-explosion-1.jpg
Let's consider that Iran, or terrorist affiliates of Iran, get two active nuclear ICBMs, target them on NYC and Washington D.C., and pop goes the weasel.  And suddenly the US is taken over by fanatical Islamists! Of course! How could I not realise it?! The US would, of course, never launch a counter-attack, but would willingly submit to the will of the Islamic Theocracies and the superpower would CRUMBLE!

Um... No. No. No. Sloppy, sloppy logic.  Fear-mongering, Obama-slandering, slop
py 'logic'.   'With Obama as our president our grandchildren might live under Shariah law!' One could more logically say that if Shariah law ever came about in the US it is unlikely to have been the result of Obama's policy only.  I get that Sowell's an economist, I get that he wants to isolate one cause and ceteris paribus the others out of that frantic picture, but really, what about GW's policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, and his position on the Israel-Palestine situation? What about Clinton? What about George 41? Oh yes, none of them took any positions on the Middle East.  Ever. But Obama? He's to blame for your grandkids living under Shariah law.  Sigh.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Carnival of the Africans 8

Welcome back to the Carnival of the Africans - a carnival of Scepticism and Science, with posts supplied by Africans. I have scoured posts that have been submitted to me and harvested the web for suitable African fruit. Enjoy the African tastes that are spread before you. Also, because the Carnival has experienced an hiatus, I thought that I would extend the time limit to the past two months, rather than only the past month. Consequently, there are a fair number of posts that fitted into the Carnival's outline.

I have decided to cut the Carnival into two parts, the first which covering purely sceptical and scientific concerns, and the second - a more narrative frame - covers science and scepticism as lived by individuals.

Part 1: Scepticism and Criticism
We kick off with a post from my own blog, Amanuensis, about a recent paper by Sam Bowles on the role of warfare (or inter-group violent conflict) in the evolution of human altruism, Bowles, his Critics, the Price equation, and Group Selection. I'd appreciate any comments or criticism.

Two posts look at the role of 'quantum mechanics' in popular culture. Rupert Neethling at Orion's Spur who tells us to take a look at a book of sceptical importance, Quantum Gods. He argues, as have others, that it easily debunks books like The Secret and others that claim some control of humans over 'quantum reality'. In a similar vein, a post at a subtle shift in emphasis provides a valuable post, if it says quantum, it must be true.

Michelle, The Skeptic Blacksheep, discusses The End of the World Part 1: Polar Shifts, so is it happening? Take a look to see. She also goes on to discuss the entertaining Gary Mannion, Psychic Surgeon. Have a laugh while reading.

Angela, the Skeptic Detective, asks,"Should I vaccinate my baby?" And concludes that any rational mother would. She shows us a video conversation between a doctor and some pregnant mothers on this topic.

James at Acinonyx Scepticus calls our attention to how Alternative Treatments will Receive Greater Scrutiny, discussing some of the relevant material as covered by the Associated Press. Bullshit Fatigue offers a brief comment, introduced by a description of frustrating Natura adverts that seem to have made their way onto South African televison, take a look at 'Magic Water, Sugar Pills, and Fairy Dust' for a general comment and some links to sceptical fun.

Owen Swart at 01 and the universe asks Is Science a Religion? He answers resoundingly, 'No!' There are several points worthy of discussion in his post and I think linking to it could stimulate the debate further and take it up a notch.

Shadowshide at Shadowshide's blog posts on some recent commentary on SA education in their post 'Thinking Begins at Home'. It brought a quotation from Emerson to mind, "[Colleges] can only highly serve us, when they aim not to drill, but to create; when they gather from far every ray of various genius to their hospitable halls, and, by the concentrated fires, set they hearts of their youth on flame."

George Classen brings us a post from Prometheus Unbound, Taken by a charlatan, in which he comments on problems related to Danie Krugel. He takes particular joy laughing at Krugel's comment that what he himseld does is 'science, science, science.'

Part 2: Sceptical Living
Leonie Joubert, gives us a cross-post from a piece she wrote for the South African Mail & Guardian called 'Pseudoscience: warts and all'. She recounts a childhood anecdote which resulted in her believing a strange pseudoscientific 'cure' for a wart on her knee. It's a good read.

Shadowshide also tells an interesting tale of how he ended up as 'ignostic' in his memoir piece, 'Religion: My Driver'. The author reports the crucial point in his penultimate paragraph, "So to a large degree religion was certainly one of the key drivers in my life, but the direction it drove me in was as far away from religion as possible." Though The Carnival of the Africans isn't strictly about atheism, I found this to be an interesting account of the clash between science, sceptical thinking and religion.

Bongi's Other Things Amanzi provides a description of startling events in the ICU in his article Leaking where he recounts the problems involved in dealing with patients who require substantial pain medication for horrendous burn wounds - what do you do?

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Call - Carnival of the Africans

The Carnival of the Africans is returning on the 28th of June and I am hosting. If you're an African science blogger or have blogged about African-related science, please check out the guidelines, then link to your post in the comment section. I will do my best to respond to you promptly.

I had to remove my email address from this post as I began to receive emails from random spammers to my personal address soon after posting. This was highly frustrating and motivated me to change the 'submission' policy. Apologies.


Bowles, his Critics, The Price Equation, and Group Selection

I have read a number of blog posts and articles on Sam Bowles's recent paper in Science, 'Did warfare among ancestral hunter-gatherers affect the evolution of human social behaviors?' Apparently, many people who are hostile to the idea for some reason (i.e. that humans, for whatever reason, might have had a violent past, or that our ancestors had behaviour patterns similar to chimpanzees) try to argue against it from poor grounds.Yet others seem to worry that 'Group Selection' differs greatly from gene selection, or kin-selection, which is not strictly accurate, as I discuss below. But not all the news is bad, some commentators make decent criticisms which need to be considered. This post is longer than normal, but I think the topic warrants such length.

One of the poorest criticisms I've seen consists of the 'Richard Dawkins in The Selfish Gene says' variety. Yes, we all know Dawkins argues against group selection models in animals. But, we also know that he doesn't mention that kin selection (à la Hamilton, 1962) is basically just a sub-class of group selection models defined by the Price equation (Price, (1970, 1972) - For a formal explanation of Hamilton's rule as a restatement of the Price equation see Rowthorn (2006)). Yes, kin selection is just group selection on a small scale. Shock! Horror! Furthermore, as Dawkins points out later in The Selfish Gene, humans are exceptional because of our cognitive abilities and because of culture. As he says, "The arguments I have put forward should, prima facie, apply to any evolved being. If a species is to be excepted, it must be for good particular reasons. Are there good reasons for supposing our own species to be unique? I believe the answer is yes" (Dawkins, 2006, 189).

With this admission we have the opportunity for gene-culture co-evolution. Genes affect our cultural expressions. Culture, because it changes the environment in which a gene finds expressions, affects our genes through evolution. Hence, having a 'cultural norm' of warfare that is culturally transmitted could affect the genetic expression of specific gene complexes, such as one that manifests altruism. Furthermore, in more recent texts such as The Ancestor's Tale, which I am currently listening to, Dawkins discusses the specific role of culture and how it could have shaped human evolution in a co-evolutionary manner.

Moving away from these issues, a commenter on one blog post evidently doesn't understand the Price equation. I reproduce it here for clarity.


Or alternatively, isolate the change in p term:

Now, many people struggle to interpret this equation. It tells us (and I use the first rather than the second version) that changes in the metapopulation will reflect changes in the populations of different genetic expressions, say Altruists (As) and Non-Altruists (Ns). Now the commenter says that Dawkins asserts that it is in a gene's interests to cooperate with the other genes for a body's survival. This elides the problem of the prisoners' dilemma game in which the genes are involved. If all other genes, being As, are cooperating to ensure survival of the host, it is in the interests of any one gene, say an N, not to do anything and to free ride on the exertions of the other genes to produce a healthy and productive gene carrier. This free riding gene can express other characteristics and maximize fitness by not cooperating.

The Price equation enters here. It's also easier at this juncture to aggregate up to the human level to introduce cultural practices and to use th expression of a gene complex to make the argument. The Price equation says that you have between group pressures (the first term, which is positive) and within group pressures (the second term, which is negative). As long as the variance between groups is greater than the variance within a group, the gene will proliferate. But how do you keep the variance of the first term, or the between group differences, sufficiently high to combat the downward selection pressures of the within group dynamic? For example, it's great to have a bunch of Altruists doing their thing as long as you don't get a sufficient number of Non-Altruists who enter their group (through mutation, drift, cultural effects) and undermine them.

The commenter erred because he assumed away within group pressure. If that was the case then the problem would be trivial. Dawkins' 'Cooperative Gene' explanation does not solve the problem unless we can explain how the gene proliferates within a group given within group pressures against it.

Now, let Bowles's example of warfare enter the arena. Bowles argues that warfare was sufficient to ensure that between group variance was kept high, ensuring the success of a sufficient number of Altruists. Assume that Altruists confer benefits 'b' on those with whom they interact, and bear costs '-c' to do so. Non-altruists do nothing. Which implies that: and that . Using those, we can manipulate the Price equation to produce the followin:
This means that altruists will survive as long as the ratio of costs to benefits is sufficient to maintain the variance between the population. Moreover, when there are additional cultural norms which allow reproductive leveling, and which therefore decrease the costs to Altruism, Altruism becomes much more likely. As Bowles (2006, 1569) puts it, "Culturally transmitted norms supporting resource and information sharing, consensus decisionmaking, collective restraints on would-be aggrandizers, monogamy, and other reproductive leveling practices that reduced within-group differences in fitness may have attenuated the selective pressures to which altruists are subject." I don't believe that the blogger on the post I commented on previously understood these phenomena properly.

All of this said, John Hawks makes a decent point about resource scarcity. He argues that Bowles claims that too much falls in the ambit of warfare. But, as far as I could see, Hawks chose to ignore Bowles's hedges. The problem, moreover, is that Hawks's argument does not seem consistent with the archaeological evidence. Consider the counterfactual, if resource scarcity and population growth mediate each other to the extent that Hawks argues they do, then the fossil evidence for inter-group violence should be minimal, or, if inter-group conflict did occur, why would it necessarily be violent or widespread? The fossil evidence indicates the contrary, as does more recent anthropological evidence of hunter-gatherer groups. Now, I admit that this is not my area of expertise, but it seems apparent to me that warfare could constitute an explanation, especially in conjunction with the evidence on resource scarcity.

This brings us to a further criticism. What about Occam's Razor, is the explanation sufficiently parsimonious? Are we offering too many inter-linked factors to explain the surprising existence of sociality in humans? Let me respond as follows. Many, many explanations of cooperation have arisen with many more inter-linked factors arising to explain cooperation. But, we are engaged in an effort to try to reduce the number of explanations into separate cultural and genetic phenomena. Bowles offers one such explanation considering the environmental factors, and gene-culture co-evolution. Evolution, in this sense, is the underlying parsimonious theory with theorists trying to understand the specific parameters that need to be appropriately tooled to apprehend the eventual evolution of something as seemingly counterintuitive as - and as prevalent as - cooperation.

I hope this post adds some clarity to the debate for those of you who are interested. I also admit that I am probably quite partisan in this debate because Sam Bowles is a professor of mine at the University of Siena and, though I disagree with some of his arguments, I find those promoting the role of inter-group violence in human history quite convincing.

References:
Bowles S. 2009. Did warfare among ancestral hunter-gatherers affect the evolution of human social behaviors? Science 324:1293-1298. doi:10.1126/science.1168112
Bowles, S. 2006. Group competition, reproductive leveling, and the evolution of human altruism,
Science 314: 1569 - 1572 DOI: 10.1126/science.1134829
Dawkins, R, 2006, The Selfish Gene: 30th Anniversary Edition, Oxford University Press.
Dawkins, R, 2005, The Ancestor's Tale, Audiobook, Abridged and read by Richard Dawkins and Lalla Ward, Orion.
Price, G.R., 1970, 'Selection and Covariance', Nature 227: 520-521
Price, G.R. 1972, 'Fisher's 'Fundamental Theorem' made clear', Annals of Human Genetics, 36:129-140.
Rowthorn, R, 2006, 'The evolution of altruism between siblings: Hamilton’s rule revisited', Journal of Theoretical Biology, 24: 774–790

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Economist - food prices

I recently commented on how increasing food prices weren't getting enough press. Well, it looks like The Economist was reading my mind.  Take a look at their graph below, published in their graph-a-day series.


As you can see, food prices in many developing countries have had increases in the past 3 months.  But, even for those that have had decreases in the last 3 months, the year-on-year increase in food prices is substantial.  For some reason China is excepted from this trend. The trend in South Africa is particularly worrying.  Inflation, by itself is not always a problem, but when combined with the endemic unemployment (and underemployment) and poverty it's an ingredient for a recipe of greater social unrest and economic instability.  Zuma and his cabinet are going to have to take on this problem, with the others that they face.  Good luck to them. 


Books

Non-fiction
William Zinsser - Writing About Your Life - http://images.barnesandnoble.com/images/14660000/14667169.JPG
With Writing About Your Life - a pleasurable and instructional book - Zinsser brandishes his skill with words, while exposing the practice required to hone such skill.  He focuses on writing memoir. He maps the challenges you face when writing a memoir and he provides tactics to avoid common problems, to improve your focus, and to clarify your intentions.  He makes a case study of several texts along the way, drawing on his own writing and his experiences interviewing other writers such as Frank McCourt, Annie Dillard, Toni Morrison, and many others.  The book is well-rounded, incorporating Zinsser's peculiar take on a life lived well, on God, on writing as career and passion, and on appreciation of commonplace beauty.  This is the second book by Zinsser that I've read and I plan to read his other books.  In particular, he refers to a book he edited, Inventing the Truth, in which several writers contribute their opinions and advice on writing memoir (including those authors listed above), which I now intend to read. 

I am not centrally interested in writing memoir, but I am motivated to write semi-autobiographical fiction, and writing that biographies my extended family.  Zinsser's Writing About Your Life contributes valuably to that pursuit as much as it does to memoir-writing because many of the same strategies and insights remain true.  Moreover, the strategies would hold for poetry in which I might choose to focus on those close to me: getting the facts right, keeping the images accurate and concrete, evoking the sound, smell, and sense of a place, or a person makes all the difference in the condensed purity of a poem.  Most crucially, Zinsser advocates writing honestly and without judgment, or, if you choose to judge those about whom you write, then do so humbly and forgivingly.  He laments the plethora of memoir-cum-attacks written in the 90s when people profited off of the pain of their families, with Jerry Springer-inspired TV action to promote their books.  He argues that this kind of memoir is best left behind.  Write honestly, faithfully, and forgivingly (of yourself and others) and you will have a beautifully written book. 

I saw upon searching online for Writing About Your Life that Zinsser has a new book, Writing Places, which was published on June 1st in the UK. I will probably wait for the paperback to be released, before I read it.  I will review it and tell you whether it lives up to his previous standards of writing.

http://www.fantasticfiction.co.uk/images/x3/x19181.jpgAnnie Dillard - The Writing Life -
Annie Dillard, author of several fiction and non-fiction books, has been recommended to me numerous times by many authors, the first of which was Deirdre McCloskey in her Economical WritingAs with many things, intention finally met reality and I was content. 

Dillard meditates on the processes of writing, doing so without sentimentality or harshness.  She imparts the lore of writing, showing the toil required to obtain quality: the labour to unearth the ore, the vision to ensure its purity, the sweat of crafting and re-crafting.

The book enchanted me, it compelled me to read it.  I was meant to be studying for exams or to be writing myself, but instead I began to read it.  It was not difficult, I used it as a break time pleasure.  The book is slim, it curves alluringly in your hand when you read it. It demands to be read.  I had about ten pages to go while I was in bed reading, but I realised that in my fatigue I was missing some of the rhythms, losing the lyric in the prose.  I put it aside until the next morning when I sat outside to read the last few pages in the morning sun.  What a pleasure. What a joy.  What a reminder of the burden and the privilege of writing.

I have not read any of Dillard's other books.  I now intend to read as many of them as I can buy, or find in libraries once Amy and I are in the UK, or even while we are in SA and I can frequent the Rondebosch Library.  I will report on them later.
http://www.sonofthesouth.net/revolutionary-war/maps/old-world-map.jpg
Professor Peter N. Stearns - A Brief History of the World  [The Teaching Company - Audio Lecture Series] 
There was much to appreciate and much to frustrate in this series of lectures by Prof Stearns.  Let me explain that I am a novice when it comes to world history, I have read Guns, Germs, and Steel, I have read various history books here and there, in particular as they relate to institutional evolution (consider here Douglas North, Friedrich Hayek), but I am far from an expert.  When he conveyed content, Professor Stearns was interesting, and thus the course was.  When he was wordy, tried desperately to justify the 'role' of world history, or giving lengthy disclaimers before explaining things, he became boring, the tempo of the course dropped, and my interest lagged a bit.  A side concern was his frustrating use of language, we don't need to be told things are 'obvious' and people really don't 'utilize' things as often as he says they do, they 'use' them.  

Nevertheless, let me highlight a few of the things I found fun and interesting.  First, he described how Mansa Musa, during his trip to Mecca, destabilized the Egyptian economy because he carried so much gold with him. The Egyptians recovered when Musa left.  Second, with the advent of Enlightenment the institutions that people employed for things that were lost was very interesting, prior to Enlightenment people hired 'Cunningmen' who were magical, savant-like individuals who would 'find' your good for a fee (somehow). After the Enlightenment, barely a century after widespread use of Cunningmen, Lost and Found centres popped up around cities and people would go to these if they lost something, rather than resorting to magical beliefs.  Another interesting tidbit he recounts was how China and India were the two largest recipients of New World (South American) silver.  Why? Prior to the development of high quality manufacturing in Western Europe, the Western European countries wanted the high quality garments, crockery, and many other goods that were produced by the Chinese and the Indians.  Finally, as a last fun fact, Stearns describes how opium was the most widely traded good in the 18th century.  I knew previously that it was an important good, and that its trade sparked the Opium Wars in China, but I had not realised how dreadfully important its trade was to the Brits and how widespread its consumption was (then again, having read the Romantics, I should have known, ahhh... laudanum).

Because of my interests in the evolution of institutions, or moving toward a theory of what Talcott Parsons calls  'evolutionary universals', I don't believe that Stearns play up enough the strange dynamics of the neolithic transition.  The neolithic transition did horrific things to human nutrition.  Quite aside from the closer proximity with animals and people that resulted in greater exposure to germs, humans were much more poorly fed. Agriculture resulted in decreases in height, similar decreases in weight, weaker bones, and all kinds of other odd results, results that we would not immediately think would enhance fitness.  Stearns also didn't mention at all the advent of private property, which probably occurred around the same time as the neolithic transition: being able to plant stuff on 'your land' was only so good if you could store 'your' stuff and differentiate it from 'other peoples'' stuff.   

Still, I felt educated by listening to the lectures.  Stearns, when he discusses actual content, teaches well and exposes his 'obvious' breadth of knowledge.  I learned a substantial number of facts, as well as more about the trends in non-Western civilizations, an area in which my knowledge is limited.  Like most people of South African Anglo-Saxon heritage, my formal history included spates of Western Civilization with some South African history thrown in, embodied by recurrent encounters with Khoi-San history, the Mfecane, and the Groot Trek.  I believe that the course offers a decent supplement to books like Jared Diamond'd Guns, Germs, and Steel, though only introducing the relevant topics and leaving deeper analysis and reading to the interested listener. 

Fiction & Memoir
http://images-cdn01.associatedcontent.com/image/A4868/486897/300_486897.jpgKurt Vonnegut - Slaughterhouse 5 
Slaughterhouse 5 is one of those books I had intended to read for ages, then I took one of those silly facebook quizzes and it told me 'as a book you are Slaughterhous 5'.  I had to read it. It is strange indeed.  I would not want to listen to it as an audiobook: Vonnegut bounds around t the timeline like a rabbit on cocaine, it's 1967, then it's 1944, then he's in no-time in Tralfamadore being inspected by aliens.  To listen to this would probably the closest I'd come to a psychadelic experience. 

Nevertheless, in the written form it is spectacular and it launched itself easily into a place next to my other favoured anti-war books (Catch 22, All Quiet on the Western Front, A Farewell to Arms).  Like Catch 22 it is humorous, yet simultaneously dreadfully sad.  The image of  emaciated Billy Pilgirm  in a poorly fitting fur-lined coat turned to waistcoat, silver stage boots for Cinderella and wandering through the bombed wasteland of Dresden makes phenomenal satire - you become confused with your simultaneous urges to cry and to laugh. Incoherent laugh-sobbing wouldn't be inappropriate. 
 
http://meerchant.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/safran_foer_everything_is_illuminated.jpgJonathan Safran Foer - Everything is Illuminated
Previously, I read Jonathan Safran Foer's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and I thought it fantastic.  Consequently, I read Foer's books in reverse order.  I did not enjoy Everything is Illuminated as much as I had hoped I would. 

The author conjures three different wisps of a story: the first involves letters sent from Alex, a Ukrainian teenager working in his father's tour business, to Foer.  The second comprises Alex's recounting of Foer's quest to discover his grandfather's origins in the shtetl of Trachimbrod.  These two strains succeed well, driven mainly by Alex's strange yet systematic errors in English because of his abuse of a thesaurus, as Alex comments, "I fatigued the thesaurus you presented me, as you counseled me to, when my words appeared petite, or not befitting." The third strain didn't appeal to me at all. Foer tries to invoke a kind of magical realist history of Trachimbrod, of his grandfather, and of his ancestors. I found it weak.  I inevitably wanted to read past these sections to arrive at the sections when Alex wrote his letters, or wrote his own stories for Foer.  The third strain made it seem like Foer was trying to be too clever, trying to ruminate too obviously on themes of memory, dream, and sexuality.  Consequently, I did not enjoy Everything is Illuminated as much as I enjoyed Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0001053094.01._SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg
Frank McCourt - Angela's Ashes: A Memoir [Audiobook]
The voice of an old Irishman, Frank McCourt, tells the story of a young American boy of Irish descent, his journey to Ireland with his beleaguered family, and his eventual return to the United States.  Frank McCourt reads Angela's Ashes enchantingly, his voice mellifluous and resonant.  He sings the songs of woe, liberty and battle, he chants the poetry, he accents the speech so that each character's 'Och' is unique yet conveys the essential Irishness that the memoir captures so well.

In Angela's Ashes, McCourt triumphs because he writes with the voice of a child, presenting his child-self in such a way that makes the voice credible, that justifies his actions.  In the audiobook this is complemented by his reading because his tone, his pitch, and his manner change consistent with how he wrote. 

The story wrenches you from laughter to shivers of hunger (you feel persistently hungry reading this book) to a moistening of the eyes.  The 'Disease of the Irish' plays a substantial part in this book, how it affects families, how the culture impelled its boys to embrace the bottle of stout, the evening pint.  McCourt engages too with the notions of the Irish state, the politics of liberty from the British, and how the class structure of Ireland, with its correlates of Catholicism and Protestantism, abutted working class sensibilities. 

The book works because McCourt writes honestly, yet forgivingly of his family and himself.  I would strongly recommend Angela's Ashes as a first step into memoir if you have not read much memoir.  I would also recommend listening to the audiobook to hear McCourt's voice, to hear his cries, his 'och's, his singing, and his emotion underpinning the narrative.   

Conversations with Amy
I thought I'd try to introduce another new facet to these book discussions by telling you what my wife, Amy, thought about the books, and what we concluded together in discussions.  Sometimes these chats will inform how the reviews themselves evolve, other times I'll review and then report on Amy's thoughts later.  

Amy read Sebastian Beaumont's Thirteen (which I commented on previously), she enjoyed it, but not as much as I did.  She thought that it was good, but not as good as my review made it seem.  She took longer than than my day-and-a-bit to read it though, which I think contributed to the differing levels of enjoyment.  Two central themes in the book are relevant here: trance states and memory.  For me, reading it quickly was like invoking a trance state to read the book 'as intended'.  Because Amy read the book only of an evening having worked hard during the day, she did not enter the book in the same way.  At least this is my current null hypothesis.  I await discussions with other people who read it quickly or slowly.

Amy also agreed with my assessment of Foer trying to be too clever in Everything is Illuminated.  She also ranks Extremely Loud  above Everything.  That said, we enjoyed how we both laughed out loud while reading Extremely, which potentially means that my three stars rating is a bit harsh, maybe the book is worth more, probably four stars would be justified.  Of the reviews that I read recently, many gush about Foer's genius while other's claim that he's a hack.  I wouldn't go as far as either of those extremes, but I would say that he's creative and someone to watch.