Friday, February 12, 2010
Making money vs. Windfalls - Are you hardnosed?
Posted by Simon Halliday | Friday, February 12, 2010 | Category:
Behavioral Economics,
Economics,
experimental economics
|
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Cherry, Frykblom and Shogren's 2002 paper 'Hardnose the Dictator' made a bit of a splash when it first came out. Other papers before it dealt with payoff legitimacy, but not many showed as stark a result as theirs did. The idea works as follows. Consider a normal dictator game: two players one who is the Dictator the other the Receiver. What happens if you make the Dictator do a task beforehand to earn their money, and, moreover, when there's differential achievement in that task? Cherry, et al get some of their subjects to answer questions from the mathematics section of a GMAT (yes, that's problematic, but let's not worry about it for now). Depending on how many questions they answer correctly, subjects are given $10 or $40. Another group are given an endowment of 'windfall' cash, as has been customary in experimental economics up to now, and they were given $10 and $40 to ensure a decent comparison. For some of the subjects 'distance' is increased when the experiment is done 'double blind'. Customarily, in the dictator game many Dictators give substantial amounts of money to their Receivers (Camerer, 2003). The question here is: do those who earned their money give the same, more, or less than those who were given windfall endowments?
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"In the baseline treatment [of windfall earnings] the theoretically predicted outcome of "zero offered" occured in 19% of the low-stakes bargains and 15% of the high-stakes bargains. In contrast, [in the earnings treatment] zero offers increase to 79% and 70% of the low- and high-stakes earnings treatments." (Cherry et al., 2002, 1219)Moreover, in the double blind treatment the zero offer became even more prevalent occuring in 95% in the low-stakes and 97% of the high stakes treatments. What can we deduce from these results? First, 'legitimizing wealth', that is getting subjects to work for their payoffs before making decisions, seems to affect how subjects behave in experiments. Second, combining earning and isolation (the double blind treatment) brought the results of the experiment much closer to the theoretically predicted outcome than in almost all other experiments.
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Is there any research which shows how many people who have won the lottery wound up blowing it all relatively quickly, compared to those who have actually invested wisely and made the windfall eventually work for them?
Lenny, I know some of that research is out there, but I haven't read any of it. As much as the lottery idea is interesting for some people, I'm more interested in how people treat everyday windfalls and earnings than I am about crazy windfall explosions like the lottery. I agree, though, that it would be interesting in its own right.